Robin has been helping Airbus who have launched the idea of a futuristic a concept plane (what an aircraft might be like in 2050) at the 2010 farnborough Airshow. see http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre/pressreleases/press-release/?tx_ttnews%5BpS%5D=1279650935&tx_ttnews%5Bpointer%5D=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4322&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=1683&cHash=09c52febd8
Additionally, Airbus have a new sutdents comptition to get ideas from, and to inspire, the next generation. www.airbus-fyi.com/
Report Foreword By Robin Mannings, B.Eng C.Eng FRGS MIET, Futurologist
Formidable challenges face all industries in the coming decades. Customers will be demanding and expecting improvements to continue but for aviation this delivery of more for less will be accompanied with a second challenge – doing it sustainably.
For of all aspects of the future, perhaps the most serious challenge will be to eliminate fossil fuels and to re-engineer a world that is sustainable for future generations.
Aviation has a unique role in bringing people from all cultures and businesses together physically. It is an essential part of a shrinking world and an aid to enhancing peaceful coexistence: although the internet is also good at doing these things, it lacks the truly human-to-human dimension that world travel provides.
As the BRIC economies forge ahead, demand for business air travel will increase and the wealth thus created will fuel demand for more leisure travel. Other countries and blocks will likely join the BRIC group (e.g. South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico ...). Many of these emerging Tiger economies will have a fast growing young demographic, so these new passengers will be expecting an exciting journey to fashionable destinations.
In contrast, in the developed world, an increasing older population with longer retirements will have a desire to see the world and its cultures, cities and scenery but with a need for more support and comfort that comes with age. Many travellers will however, have less to spend because the fruits of economic growth will be spent on re-engineering the planet and repaying debt. Taxation on travel will rise as authorities will be seeking many ways to raise revenue to pay for the demographic time-bomb and deal with the challenges of climate change.
It is forecast that in the next 50 years world population will rise by 50% and it is also forecast that many people will be living healthy lives to 100+ (perhaps even to 150years!).
Fortunately for engineers and technologists at Airbus, their four decades of innovation is set to continue and to accelerate as scientific research underway today bears fruit. We can expect to gradually solve the challenges that sustainability requires and by designing our way into a better future we should also be able to delight customers and enhance business as well.
Research in nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science are providing a growing set of opportunities. Some examples include; new light and strong composite materials, electronic plastics, fuels created directly from growing plants (that are effectively scrubbing the atmosphere of unwanted carbon), smarter computer and avionics systems and transport informatics.
A key challenge will be to bring the futures of new technology, of good design and innovative business together. For example; a future aircraft will need to be much more fuel efficient and need radical approaches to engines, airframe and avionics. The needs of passengers will require inspired cabin designs with the latest display and entertainment systems and new efficient boarding methods will be needed to help older passengers. The current businesses of airlines could change to be fully integrated with other parts of the transport system to minimise delays and hassle and maximise efficiency. Passengers will demand flexibility and an end to the hassles associated with flying.
Intelligent transportation systems could organise optimal journeys so that all waste, error and delay are accounted for so that the traveller need only follow real time instructions (delivered by a personal wireless communications device that allows detailed tracking).
Airports are travel bottlenecks so a future challenge will be to find innovations to streamline the part airports and aeroplanes play in multimodal travel. People do not want endless concrete, endless traffic queues, overcrowded rail journeys and endless delays, queues and the hauling of luggage.
Self guided and remotely piloted aircraft are currently being pioneered by the military so perhaps the current model of human pilot and human air-traffic controllers may be redesigned. It seems unlikely that a passenger plane would have no pilot but a freight plane could be a candidate. Certainly if the demand for travel increases and the skies are hugely crowded, then radical new approaches to safe control and guidance will be needed. Many advances in navigation, wireless and sensor technology are predicted and research into machine learning and cognitive sciences are suggesting that in 40 years, there may be few human tasks that could not be performed by a machine.
The goal of sustainability will need new approaches to materials, recycling and manufacturing. As well as fuel efficiency, all parts of the lifecycle of aircraft will need to take account of their environmental impact. Recycling and re-engineering may be as important as the initial manufacturing processes.
Looking to the future we can learn many lessons from nature. Biomimicry inspired mankind to follow birds into the skies and it is likely that we can copy many other tricks that nature has evolved.
Smart new materials should enable designers to create airframes that are as light as possible. Smart on the outside to aid aerodynamic and operational efficiency and smart on the inside to maximise passenger comfort and enjoyment. Electronics and computing will be integrated into the designs and it can be envisaged that computer chips will be everywhere and in almost everything .
Looking back at aviation in the 1960s one could conclude that change has been rapid in some areas but slow in others. The next 40 or so years are likely to see greater changes as the challenges have increased. A less conservative approach will probably be needed with radical new designs, using new and converging NBIC technologies and many business innovations.
www.robinmannings.com
Wednesday, 21 July 2010
Thursday, 6 August 2009
Sorry, we are very busy dealing with other customers
Four hours on hold this week to fix two 'simple' IT problems. Firstly, porting a number from one mobile phone SIM card to another (within the same network) and secondly, an inoperative wireless printer following the replacement of the house's broadband wireless hub. Its enough to want one to abandon new technology and revert to the Plain Old Telephony Systems (POTS) and a typewriter!
Is the future any brighter? I hope so - and there are powerful economic drivers helping. The call centres are very expensive (if they employ excellent people who can communicate well) and ineffective if they use cheap poorly trained labour. It seems that much of the time agents are driving fragmented ad hoc internal systems that could probably be improved. I am impressed by banks that allow me to move my own money around on-line, so why can't I change the network configuration of my own mobile phone? The answer is to invest in better software and to simplify systems, so people can do things for them selves much more. Invest in reducing complexity to allow DIY.
Wireless incompatibility is a major issue. The fault is perhaps in the rather poor and fragmented approach to standards. Although GSM is not particularly elegant standard, it took years to thrash out in the ETSI organisation and resulted in a very reliable and legally binding EU framework for mobile phones. If a similar approach were adopted in other areas of technology then interfaces and reliability would probably be better. One can criticise the traditional approach for being long winded but the alternative, as can be seen with many areas of Net technology as well as license free wireless, is a load of hassle!
The common factor in the above arguments is about keeping things simple. In a world where we will be doing more with less, it is imperative to make things benefit rich but (unnecessary) feature poor. To make things simple and reliable (so things don't need call centre people to sort out the problems) and to get better standards (probably enforced by a license). Things may slow down and be commercially less attractive but the aim should be for technology to be right first time and for equipment to last and last and always be compatible.
A final thought. The most resilient systems are found in nature and some have endured for billions of years. If anything changes then they adapt and evolve. There are extinctions at the level of organisms but the underlying bio-protocols are long lasting. Perhaps technologists need to study the way nature works!
Is the future any brighter? I hope so - and there are powerful economic drivers helping. The call centres are very expensive (if they employ excellent people who can communicate well) and ineffective if they use cheap poorly trained labour. It seems that much of the time agents are driving fragmented ad hoc internal systems that could probably be improved. I am impressed by banks that allow me to move my own money around on-line, so why can't I change the network configuration of my own mobile phone? The answer is to invest in better software and to simplify systems, so people can do things for them selves much more. Invest in reducing complexity to allow DIY.
Wireless incompatibility is a major issue. The fault is perhaps in the rather poor and fragmented approach to standards. Although GSM is not particularly elegant standard, it took years to thrash out in the ETSI organisation and resulted in a very reliable and legally binding EU framework for mobile phones. If a similar approach were adopted in other areas of technology then interfaces and reliability would probably be better. One can criticise the traditional approach for being long winded but the alternative, as can be seen with many areas of Net technology as well as license free wireless, is a load of hassle!
The common factor in the above arguments is about keeping things simple. In a world where we will be doing more with less, it is imperative to make things benefit rich but (unnecessary) feature poor. To make things simple and reliable (so things don't need call centre people to sort out the problems) and to get better standards (probably enforced by a license). Things may slow down and be commercially less attractive but the aim should be for technology to be right first time and for equipment to last and last and always be compatible.
A final thought. The most resilient systems are found in nature and some have endured for billions of years. If anything changes then they adapt and evolve. There are extinctions at the level of organisms but the underlying bio-protocols are long lasting. Perhaps technologists need to study the way nature works!
Saturday, 1 August 2009
People or Paper-Clips?
A cynic might say that The Department of Defence is about war, The Dept of Health about sickness and that Human Resources Depts. are about "resources" rather than people. Resources are things like paper clips. Surely humans are people and not resources?
In the future, the most effective people will only work for organisations who value people. In many areas of work, machines (and increasingly robots) are removing the drudge which ought to free up time for people to engage more with people. The jobs of the future that will rise will be increasingly about people to people activities e.g. tutoring, the performance arts, sales and in health care - the bed-side manner. In contrast, jobs will decline where things are very deterministic and about physical resources (and some might say its no bad thing that boring activities should be left to machines). People may choose to do a job that could be mechanised, or an economy may not be rich enough to invest in machines/robots or it may be that sometimes human-power is a more sustainable approach - but always people should not treated as machines and mere resources.
In the past, HR was called "personnel" so perhaps the future may be back-to-the-future. The author recently had the surreal experience of being wished well for the future, after working 20 years for an organisation, by a HR software-robot! Clearly, this should have been a person thing not a paper clip thing.
In the deep future however, machines may develop minds and perhaps the distinctions could blur. Perhaps a future machine may well be offended by the term HR. Offended by being categorised as a mere human and also by being treated as a mere resource!
In the future, the most effective people will only work for organisations who value people. In many areas of work, machines (and increasingly robots) are removing the drudge which ought to free up time for people to engage more with people. The jobs of the future that will rise will be increasingly about people to people activities e.g. tutoring, the performance arts, sales and in health care - the bed-side manner. In contrast, jobs will decline where things are very deterministic and about physical resources (and some might say its no bad thing that boring activities should be left to machines). People may choose to do a job that could be mechanised, or an economy may not be rich enough to invest in machines/robots or it may be that sometimes human-power is a more sustainable approach - but always people should not treated as machines and mere resources.
In the past, HR was called "personnel" so perhaps the future may be back-to-the-future. The author recently had the surreal experience of being wished well for the future, after working 20 years for an organisation, by a HR software-robot! Clearly, this should have been a person thing not a paper clip thing.
In the deep future however, machines may develop minds and perhaps the distinctions could blur. Perhaps a future machine may well be offended by the term HR. Offended by being categorised as a mere human and also by being treated as a mere resource!
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