Future of Aviation - helping with the new and visionary Airbus Concept Plane

Robin has been helping Airbus who have launched the idea of a futuristic a concept plane (what an aircraft might be like in 2050) at the 2010 farnborough Airshow. see   http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre/pressreleases/press-release/?tx_ttnews%5BpS%5D=1279650935&tx_ttnews%5Bpointer%5D=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4322&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=1683&cHash=09c52febd8
Additionally, Airbus have a new sutdents comptition to get ideas from, and to inspire, the next generation. www.airbus-fyi.com/



Report Foreword By Robin Mannings, B.Eng C.Eng FRGS MIET, Futurologist

Formidable challenges face all industries in the coming decades. Customers will be demanding and expecting improvements to continue but for aviation this delivery of more for less will be accompanied with a second challenge – doing it sustainably.
For of all aspects of the future, perhaps the most serious challenge will be to eliminate fossil fuels and to re-engineer a world that is sustainable for future generations.
Aviation has a unique role in bringing people from all cultures and businesses together physically. It is an essential part of a shrinking world and an aid to enhancing peaceful coexistence: although the internet is also good at doing these things, it lacks the truly human-to-human dimension that world travel provides.
As the BRIC economies forge ahead, demand for business air travel will increase and the wealth thus created will fuel demand for more leisure travel. Other countries and blocks will likely join the BRIC group (e.g. South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico ...). Many of these emerging Tiger economies will have a fast growing young demographic, so these new passengers will be expecting an exciting journey to fashionable destinations.
In contrast, in the developed world, an increasing older population with longer retirements will have a desire to see the world and its cultures, cities and scenery but with a need for more support and comfort that comes with age. Many travellers will however, have less to spend because the fruits of economic growth will be spent on re-engineering the planet and repaying debt. Taxation on travel will rise as authorities will be seeking many ways to raise revenue to pay for the demographic time-bomb and deal with the challenges of climate change.
It is forecast that in the next 50 years world population will rise by 50% and it is also forecast that many people will be living healthy lives to 100+ (perhaps even to 150years!).
Fortunately for engineers and technologists at Airbus, their four decades of innovation is set to continue and to accelerate as scientific research underway today bears fruit. We can expect to gradually solve the challenges that sustainability requires and by designing our way into a better future we should also be able to delight customers and enhance business as well.
Research in nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science are providing a growing set of opportunities. Some examples include; new light and strong composite materials, electronic plastics, fuels created directly from growing plants (that are effectively scrubbing the atmosphere of unwanted carbon), smarter computer and avionics systems and transport informatics.
A key challenge will be to bring the futures of new technology, of good design and innovative business together. For example; a future aircraft will need to be much more fuel efficient and need radical approaches to engines, airframe and avionics. The needs of passengers will require inspired cabin designs with the latest display and entertainment systems and new efficient boarding methods will be needed to help older passengers. The current businesses of airlines could change to be fully integrated with other parts of the transport system to minimise delays and hassle and maximise efficiency. Passengers will demand flexibility and an end to the hassles associated with flying.
Intelligent transportation systems could organise optimal journeys so that all waste, error and delay are accounted for so that the traveller need only follow real time instructions (delivered by a personal wireless communications device that allows detailed tracking).
Airports are travel bottlenecks so a future challenge will be to find innovations to streamline the part airports and aeroplanes play in multimodal travel. People do not want endless concrete, endless traffic queues, overcrowded rail journeys and endless delays, queues and the hauling of luggage.
Self guided and remotely piloted aircraft are currently being pioneered by the military so perhaps the current model of human pilot and human air-traffic controllers may be redesigned. It seems unlikely that a passenger plane would have no pilot but a freight plane could be a candidate. Certainly if the demand for travel increases and the skies are hugely crowded, then radical new approaches to safe control and guidance will be needed. Many advances in navigation, wireless and sensor technology are predicted and research into machine learning and cognitive sciences are suggesting that in 40 years, there may be few human tasks that could not be performed by a machine.
The goal of sustainability will need new approaches to materials, recycling and manufacturing. As well as fuel efficiency, all parts of the lifecycle of aircraft will need to take account of their environmental impact. Recycling and re-engineering may be as important as the initial manufacturing processes.
Looking to the future we can learn many lessons from nature. Biomimicry inspired mankind to follow birds into the skies and it is likely that we can copy many other tricks that nature has evolved.

Smart new materials should enable designers to create airframes that are as light as possible. Smart on the outside to aid aerodynamic and operational efficiency and smart on the inside to maximise passenger comfort and enjoyment. Electronics and computing will be integrated into the designs and it can be envisaged that computer chips will be everywhere and in almost everything .


Looking back at aviation in the 1960s one could conclude that change has been rapid in some areas but slow in others. The next 40 or so years are likely to see greater changes as the challenges have increased. A less conservative approach will probably be needed with radical new designs, using new and converging NBIC technologies and many business innovations.

 www.robinmannings.com